1, 2, 3, More: An Accumulator Architecture for Anchoring and Adjustment

نویسنده

  • Kevin Burns
چکیده

We present a computational model of probabilistic reasoning in a synthetic task environment. The task is a solitaire game called TRACS in which a player must update odds as card are turned, like Blackjack. Initial experiments with this game showed that human subjects exhibit a “baseline bias” due to a heuristic strategy of “anchoring and adjustment”. Here we develop a computational model of this behavior using fuzzy functions and simple summing to simulate the cognitive processes of memory activation and evidence accumulation. We compare the simulation results to experimental data and highlight the practical value of our approach.

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تاریخ انتشار 2003